Current crisis could help PM Tusk in 2027 polls, but it may also backfire both against him and President Nawrocki: Polish expert Krzysztof Marcin Zalewski


Dramatic visuals emerged over night from Warsaw as President Karol Nawrocki ordered his Senegal-bound aircraft to turn midway in Spanish airspace as a political crisis erupted between him and the Government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk over the top posts in the Constitutional Tribunal, one of the most important organs of post-Cold War Poland. Krzysztof Marcin Zalewski, Chairperson of Boym Institute, a leading think tank in Warsaw spoke over phone about the trajectory of the crisis and the way ahead for the Donald Tusk government.


What is the role of the Constitutional Tribunal in the functioning of the Polish state?


Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal reviews whether legislation complies with the Constitution. It is a separate judicial body with specific constitutional powers. Its judges are nominated by the Presidium of the Sejm (lower house of the Polish parliament) or by a group of at least 50 MPs and elected by the Sejm, by an absolute majority (meaning that the votes in favour must outnumber the votes against and abstentions combined).

Poland has a dual executive — a strong government accountable to parliament and a strong president elected by popular vote. The current President is right-wing, while the government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk is centrist, and Polish society is deeply polarised.


What is the current political crisis about?


The current controversy concerns allegations of political bias among the Tribunal’s judges, particularly its president, Bogdan Święczkowski. President Karol Nawrocki has strongly supported Mr. Święczkowski in the ongoing dispute over the Tribunal’s leadership.

On October 30, 2026, Constitutional Tribunal judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska ordered a one-month interruption of official duties for the Tribunal’s president, Bogdan Święczkowski, and vice-president, Bartłomiej Sochański, pending disciplinary review. She cited alleged obstruction of other judges’ participation, irregularities in assigning judges to cases, and failure to secure approval of the Tribunal’s draft budget for 2027. The legality of her decision and her authority to issue it are disputed.

President Karol Nawrocki, who was travelling to Senegal, cut short his journey and returned to Warsaw. Demonstrators, including supporters of the Opposition Law and Justice party (PiS), gathered outside the Tribunal to protest against the decision. Mr. Nawrocki, who is backed by PiS, visited the Tribunal, supported Mr. Święczkowski and challenged the legality of the action. The dispute reflects a broader conflict between the President and the government over judicial appointments and the functioning of Poland’s judicial institutions.


What is the dispute over the Tribunal’s judges?


The dispute concerns the validity of judicial appointments and whether all judges elected by the Sejm can take up their duties. Constitutional Tribunal judges are elected for nine-year terms, so its composition can reflect appointments made by successive parliamentary majorities. The current parliamentary majority and President Nawrocki disagree over the status of several judges. The President has declined to administer the oath to some judges elected by the current Sejm, while those judges maintain that their election is valid.

This disagreement has created competing claims to authority within the Tribunal. The recent decision to temporarily remove its president and vice-president from their duties was issued by fellow Justice Anna Korwin-Piotrowska. Its legality remains disputed. 


Judges are supposed to be impartial and bound only by the Polish Constitution. Why, then, are they accused of political bias?


The accusations arise from the political appointment process, some judges’ previous political affiliations, and decisions that critics see as favouring particular political parties. However, appointment by a parliamentary majority does not in itself establish that a judge is biased.

A central legal dispute concerns the role of the President of the country, elected by a popular vote. The Constitution gives the parliament the power to elect Constitutional Tribunal judges. Judges subsequently take an oath before the President, currently Karol Nawrocki. Many constitutional lawyers argue that administering the oath is a formal duty and does not give the President discretion to reject judges validly elected by the parliament. The current President’s position differs, creating disagreement over who is entitled to serve.

The Tribunal is intended to review the constitutionality of legislation and resolve disputes over powers between central constitutional authorities. The controversy over its own composition and leadership has weakened its ability to perform that role. Poland’s government continues to function, but the President and the parliamentary majority remain divided over fundamental constitutional questions.


Social media commentators are presenting the crisis as one between the globalists and the Polish nationalists. Is that so?


The main divide is between a national-conservative camp, associated with PiS and President Nawrocki (“the localists”), and a broadly pro-European coalition led by Donald Tusk, which includes centrist, liberal and left-wing parties (“the globalists”) . They disagree over European integration, the role of religion, social policy and the organisation of State institutions. Both camps claim to defend Poland’s national interests; they differ over how to do so.

There is a partial parallel with the current Indian political trends, with the divide between the BJP’s emphasis on religious and national identity and the more secular, pluralist outlook associated with Congress and parts of the Opposition. However, Poland’s relationship with the European Union adds a dimension without a direct Indian equivalent — disagreement over how national sovereignty should coexist with shared European rules.

There is also a major institutional difference. Poland has a directly elected President with substantial powers who can oppose a government supported by parliament. India’s President generally acts on the advice of the Prime Minister and Council of Ministers. Poland’s political polarisation therefore translates into conflict between two separately elected centres of executive authority.

The Tribunal crisis concerns the legitimacy of appointments, judicial independence, and the limits of institutional powers. Describing it simply as a struggle between nationalists and globalists misses these constitutional issues.


How will this affect Donald Tusk’s political future?


The conflict could help Mr. Tusk mobilise his supporters ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections by presenting his government as defending the rule of law. His opponents can use the same events to accuse him of exceeding his authority and rally their own voters.

It could also backfire on both camps. After nearly eleven years of conflict over the Constitutional Tribunal, many voters may see another confrontation as evidence of political paralysis.

For Mr. Tusk, the risk is that the dispute overshadows a potentially stronger electoral message: solid economic growth of around 3.5–4%, an image of Poland as a safe and secure country despite Russia’s war in neighbouring Ukraine, and living standards approaching four times their level at the beginning of the post-communist transition. That last achievement spans successive governments, but voters will judge Mr. Tusk on whether their lives continue to improve. The political outcome will depend on whether voters see his actions as restoring functioning institutions or escalating a prolonged partisan struggle.



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